Statistical Downscaling of Future Precipitation Scenarios for Agusan del Norte, Philippines
Received: 03 September 2016 / Accepted: 20 March 2017/ Published online: 21 June 2017
- A more extreme storm event can occur in Agusan del Norte, Philippines. Precipitations with a 24-hour duration are expected to increase by about 2-18%, 6-19%, and 15-51% for the period 2020, 2050, and 2080, respectively. A 48-hour storm duration is projected to increase by about 7-17%, 7-18%, and 16-51% for the period 2020, 2050, and 2080, respectively.
- Downscaled data for future climate scenarios are useful inputs in conducting vulnerability assessment and hydrologic modeling to understand the processes of bodies of water at the provincial level.
- Results from statistical downscaling technique can be used as basis in formulating appropriate policies and programs to address the local impacts of climate change.
General circulation models (GCMs) are essential tools for understanding climate behavior and projecting future global climate, but with limited applications for local vulnerability assessments, impact studies, and risk analyses. This study demonstrates the use of statistical downscaling technique, which is computationally inexpensive and efficient in generating locally relevant data from GCMs. The 30-year records of daily precipitation data from 1981 to 2010 in Agusan del Norte, Philippines were considered to analyze the existing climatic condition of the province. Future precipitation magnitude, centered on 2020 (2006-2035), 2050 (2036-2065), and 2080 (2066-2095), were generated using a statistical downscaling technique under A1B climate scenario. Based on the analyses of annual 24-hour and 48-hour maximum precipitation, climatic conditions for present and future scenarios were analyzed. Precipitations with 24-hour duration are expected to increase by about 2-18%, 6-19%, and 15-51% for the period 2020, 2050, and 2080, respectively. Meanwhile, rainfall with 48-hour duration is projected to increase by about 7-17%, 7-18%, and 16-51% for the period 2020, 2050, and 2080, respectively. Future precipitation scenarios can help stakeholders from different sectors in the province evaluate impacts and identify tradeoffs towards implementing the most appropriate climate change adaptation strategies.
statistical downscaling, precipitation scenarios, climate change, Agusan del Norte, Philippines
Karen B. Burdeos
Mathematics Department, Caraga State University